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Investing.com -- Commodity firm Argus reduced its projection for Ukraine’s 2026 wheat crop to 23.5 million metric tons from 23.9 million tons estimated in December, the company said Monday.
The revised forecast remains the highest since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 and exceeds the four-year average of 22 million tons.
Argus lowered its harvested area projection for the Black Sea country to 5.1 million hectares from 5.2 million hectares, while maintaining its yield forecast at 4.6 tons per hectare. The expected yield is slightly above the 2025/26 level of 4.55 tons per hectare and the five-year average of 4.42 tons per hectare.
Local consultancy APK-Inform also cut its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest on Monday to 19.9 million tons.
Winter conditions featured cold snaps and extremely low temperatures, Argus noted. Warmer weather from February and fertilizer use improved conditions for winter wheat.
Argus released the crop forecasts to clients last week and said the projections could be revised again in June following updates on 2026/27 planted areas from Ukraine’s State Statistics Service.
Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest grain exporters.
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